I've only been a member of the Liberal Democrats since March. I joined the party after trying to make up my mind whom to support after probably four years or so of deliberation; I was interviewed by the Guardian in December in which I said I would 'probably vote Labour' mainly because I dearly wanted to be able to vote for someone, however indirectly, who would potentially end up as PM. John Harris, during the interview said several times: 'you sound like a Liberal Democrat' 'so why don't you vote Lib Dem?' The answer was probably the same as why so many people didn't vote for the Lib Dems last week- although I was happy with the party's core values and policies I actually felt they'd done a pretty shocking job in taming the Tories- in particular allowing policies like the Bedroom Tax to go through- as well as their broken promise on Tuition Fees. While I liked Nick Clegg a lot, I felt he was a far too mild influence to David Cameron, making claims that good coalition policies were his, and the more nasty ones were the Tories, which had absolutely no traction. The clue is in the term 'coalition'- both parties should take the share of the responsibility for both. Yes policies like the pupil premium, higher tax allowance, apprenticeships, mental health provision etc etc were great, but equally the division the Tories had created in society happened because the Lib Dems propped them up. I agree it was the right thing to go into coalition, but only because the alternative was a spent, discredited and chaotic government, so it was necessary, but we can be forgiven for not jumping for joy with enthusiasm about that decision.
I changed my mind as the election approached because I realised that I had to decide whether to support a party that promoted values with which I agree; or vote for one 'holding my nose' which I absolutely disagreed with on so many things, and for a leader- Ed Miliband- who I felt was simply incompetent. I watched Nick Clegg's 2014 conference speech, looked into the Lib Dem influence on the government and realised it was far more significant than I had ever thought possible. Yet most voters clearly stopped thinking about the Liberal Democrats long before this; and those who wanted to vote for a Prime Minister ended up voting Tory, for Cameron, because the alternative was so ridiculous.
I don't claim to be an expert- but the reason I think the Lib Dems did so badly, lie mainly in the SNP surge in Scotland and the reaction of English voters. The main reasons can be broken down into Stability, Nationalism and (broken) Promises- all three of which the SNP party's rise made worse for the Lib Dems.
1. People voted for Stability. Not least because the Tories, and yes, the Lib Dems told them to. 'There's a real chance Ed Miliband will be propped up by the SNP so vote for us to prevent this.' said the Tories. 'There's a real chance Ed will be propped up by the SNP, so vote for us so we will prop him up instead.' said the Lib Dems. So what did people do, especially in Lib Dem seats? They voted Tory. I think people in England were genuinely worried about this, especially with the polls saying it was neck and neck, and voted Tory. I would guess (having thought like this only a few months ago) people though that a vote for the Lib Dems would make a Miliband/SNP 'deal' (or whatever may have happened) more likely. I actually think a stronger Labour leader would have benefitted the Lib Dems, signs that Labour may have got a sound majority would have led some in the South West, for example, to vote Lib Dem for their preferred 'local' popular MP.
2. Nationalism in Scotland, and as a side-effect, in England, meant that the Lib Dems' sensible, outward looking views on Europe and immigration were sidelined and seen as irrelevant at best, and idealistic and naive at worst. Being part of the coalition really hurt the party in Scotland. Scottish voters saw the Lib Dems as 'part of the Westminster elite' and indistinguishable from the Tories. This started more or less straight after the formation of the coalition, but reached its peak after the 2014 referendum. Never mind how hard working, talented and effective MPs like Jo Swinson and Charles Kennedy were, it didn't matter. In England the effect of 'petty nationalism' meant more voters looked rightward, and chose the Tories over the Lib Dems as a reaction to what they perceived to be the loss of 'English' rights as promoted by people like John Redwood.
3. Finally broken Promises doomed the Liberal Democrats. The obvious one is tuition fees, many others have written it was daft for Clegg to so publicly promise to abolish them; this clearly led many to say 'I can never trust the Lib Dems again.' In fact a colleague of mine made me realise the depth to which this has harmed the party, He had always voted Lib Dem, and for the first time in 2015 he didn't, because they broke this promise, and 'integrity was always what the Liberals claimed to be unique about them.' Also the promises made to the people of Scotland by David Cameron for more powers, and the fact he said that the government needed to sort out English votes first, meant the Lib Dems were once again seen as indistinguishable from the Tories.
So on to renewal? I think we need to do two or three things in the short term. Firstly, elect a leader who can communicate the Liberal Democrat message in a clear, forceful and persuasive way. One who opposes the government at every turn, who has flair, can maximise the publicity of the party and is able to make alliances with other like minded MPs. For me, that person is Tim Farron.
Secondly, we need to position ourselves wisely. In my view it is as vocal, passionate opponents of the Conservatives. The Tories are in government, and we are now an opposition party- so we need to oppose them. They've only been in power a week and given the Lib Dems several open goals, the Human Rights Act, Cameron's ridiculous- and scary- claim that obeying the law isn't enough to avoid state interference- and their repeated intention to have an in/out EU referendum. We need to campaign for this to be held quickly, and lead the winning case to stay in. Labour, being Labour, will carry on their petty infighting, take an eon to elect their leader and inflict many open wounds on themselves in doing so. In the meantime the Lib Dems can come out fighting, and attract back those whose trust we lost, and win new supporters.
Thirdly, we need to 'carry lightly' some of our principles and policies. Rightly or wrongly, the Lib Dems are seen as a bit 'eccentric' endlessly debating issues affecting only a small number of people, or advocating a bit too loudly some ideas which go against the majority of society's views. Sometimes we get this right- like the campaign on equal marriage- but sometimes we can seem very out of touch. The new leader needs to show an ability to 'rein in' some of this tendency, and focus clearly on what matters- preserving the Union, staying in the EU, opposing the Tories and developing a clear Liberal vision for our economy, our environment and our society.
No comments:
Post a Comment